Project Background

Various noxious marine biota, such as jellyfish and noxious algal blooms, periodically afflict the waters of the Chesapeake Bay and the coastal U.S. The recent outbreak of the ichthyotoxic dinoflagellate Pfiesteria piscicida and the periodic invasion of sea nettles (Chrysaora quinquecirrha) in the summer are examples of these events. The adverse impact of these biotic events may be mitigated if their presence could be monitored and predicted.

Multiple interacting physical, chemical, and biotic factors lead to the development and persistence of biotic events. Information on many of these factors is accessible in near-real time from geographic databases, numerical circulation models, and operational satellites. The capability to assess pertinent environmental factors in near-real time offers the potential to operationally predict the presence of noxious biotic events if the specific environmental conditions associated with their occurrence are known.

The environmental conditions associated with the presence of sea nettles in the Chesapeake Bay are relatively well established. Given the salinity and temperature preferences of sea nettles, we have developed an experimental procedure which produces maps illustrating their probable distribution patterns. This was accomplished by applying a habitat model to surface salinity estimated from a numerical hydrographic model of Chesapeake Bay and sea-surface temperature derived from the hydrographic model or NOAA satellite imagery.

This project represents a collaboration between scientists from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science at College of William and Mary, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.